[dafleur]

By Nick Heath, silicon.com, News.com
Posted on ZDNet News: Sep 03, 2008 8:39:01 AM

After all the polished promises of a streamlined new way to tame the web, the blogosphere was ready to predict Chrome would inspire everything from the end of Firefox to the demise of Microsoft itself.
silicon.com spoke to industry experts and Google's new rivals to find out why Chrome matters and whether the browser reality can deliver on the hype.

Internet Explorer's stranglehold
The average computer user tends to lack the technical know-how or motivation to change from their default browser, Internet Explorer, giving Microsoft around 60 per cent of the market without even trying. Despite being the only really viable alternative to IE's domination, Firefox has struggled to gain above 20 per cent of the market.

In spite of Google's huge brand leverage analysts feel Chrome could still struggle to gain a foothold when faced with consumers who prefer to stick with what they know.

David Mitchell, VP for IT research at analysts Ovum, said: "Internet Explorer is still used by about 60 to 70 per cent of people and there is a big chunk of the population who are remarkably reticent to change platform.

"I think that Google will grab market share but whether they will knock IE off the top spot is another scenario."

Microsoft itself is confident of IE's unassailability. The company said: "The browser landscape is highly competitive but people will choose Internet Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at their fingertips, respects their personal choices about how they want to browse and puts them in control of their personal data online."

Bad track record
Despite Google's search dominance, its other homegrown applications have failed to attract anywhere near the same popularity.

It was one of the first companies to enter the social networking market with orkut but the site remains largely unknown outside of Brazil, and despite being launched before YouTube, Google Video always failed to match its popularity, eventually forcing Google to buy up its rival.

Similarly, despite being perhaps the most well-known Google branded app outside of search, Gmail still lags behind Windows Live Hotmail.

Nate Elliott, research director at analysts Jupiter Research, said: "In most cases the products that Google has delivered on its own have failed.

"To achieve success they have had to buy in services from elsewhere and not build them themselves."

Google backlash
With the Google brand already ubiquitous worldwide, could the sheer scale of the search giant's reach start to scare consumers? Tor Odland, head of communications for rival browser Opera, thinks the brand's attempted dominance could prompt an anti-Microsoft style backlash against lack of choice.

He said: "You have to ask whether people want to use products and services from only one company. It is a return to the days of Microsoft.

"I wonder how people will feel about being so tied into one company - the one thing that the online world has taught us is that people like choice."

Damage to Google services
Google has traditionally taken a cross platform approach to its services and worked closely with its soon-to-be rivals Opera and Mozilla, and recently renewed a deal with Mozilla that puts Google as the default search in Firefox. Focusing on Chrome could see those all-important bonds start to loosen.

Odland said: "It is important that they keep testing their services for compatibility with other browsers.

"We hope that they will continue to work with Opera and Mozilla to deliver a better internet experience."

Jupiter Research's Elliott believes Google is hedging its bets: "They have given themselves plenty of time to make progress in the browser market while maintaining a strong presence in Firefox."

How to get it out there?
There is also the question of how Google will get Chrome onto people's computers in the first place. Will it take the Apple approach of bundling it with other application downloads as Apple did with Safari and iTunes or Sun's bundling of Java downloads with OpenOffice.

Ovum's Mitchell said: "One thing that has not been made clear is what is their distribution strategy? Are they going to rely on downloads straight from the Google site or follow the lead of Apple?"

Jupiter Research's Elliott said: "Firefox is by all accounts a fantastic browser and still has less than 20 per cent browser share. That speaks volumes about how big an advantage Microsoft has by installing IE on PCs."

On the other hand, see why Chrome may well be the next big thing...

http://news.zdnet.com/2424-9595_22-219394.html

[photo.ollie]

wow, i didn't know this! thanks for the information.

[Xarthan]

yes the only way google can gain marketshare is if they buy out someone who already has that share, aka youtube.

Plus its not google's goal to beat out firefox or IE, their goal was to put out an open browser so that firefox or IE could take pieces away and IMPROVE their own browser.

[fudgemonk3y]

i always thought that google wanted to dominate everythg ~_~

[j00n]

Yeah i agree with the article. Once a user is comfortable with a product they will inevitably stay with it unless it's shown that there is another major superior product that everyone is using. Firefox has been gaining in popularity (i think) because it's what IE used to be like. (I say IE6 was the best they ever had.) Firefox is fast, reliable, and streamlined. IE 7/8 is a bloated, fat, slow monster rife with embedded ads, toolbars, etc, eating up precious screen reality (specially for us on laptops). Also the MSN Live search is junk compared to the Google that defaults on Firefox.

The one thing i think they neglected to mention is that even though Google has higher brand recognition and even IF Google were to gain some traction of Microsoft...it would remain within the borders of the USA. Globally, Microsoft absolutely dominates and has significant traction in other countries (Korea is a good example of a Microsoft dominated country) as well as developing countries like China and India. Google is still battling for dominance in the US and hence their "foreign policy" is rather non-existent.

[apparition]

good read. the browser market is definitely overcrowded. opera? firefox (and derivatives)? safari? ie? now chrome?

i still dislike IE though... i dont use it, and even before firefox existed, i STILL wasnt using it (used netscape instead, before IE killed it ).

has anyone used chrome btw? havent really heard much about it in the news, except for holes in it (probalby fixed now)

[watcher]

evolution of virtualization and operating systems might shift the playing field someday... just depends on which direction they all wanna go

[trashstar]

i don't know about you but i'm going to be one of those stubborn people and stick with firefox

[bonbons]

I love my firefox, don't think I want chrome. lol but I do love Gmail...google's got my vote on that. haha

[Misao]

good read. the browser market is definitely overcrowded. opera? firefox (and derivatives)? safari? ie? now chrome?

i still dislike IE though... i dont use it, and even before firefox existed, i STILL wasnt using it (used netscape instead, before IE killed it ).

has anyone used chrome btw? havent really heard much about it in the news, except for holes in it (probalby fixed now)

i'm using it right npw. it's very.. simple, but very fast! i'm liking it^^

[swordliger]

i installed chrome and played around with it. nothing special, i even find IE better than Chrome lol.
and plus, the stupid 'GoogleUpdate.exe' thing kept bugging me. couldn't fully disable it, so uninstalled the entire program haha

in my opinion, IE 7/8 and Chrome is just eye-candy.
Firefox and Opera are the superior browsers out there

[Misao]

ugh for some reason, whenever i go on the yahoo website, it always load sooo slooow on chrome. lololol

[cluu1]

hmm imo

chrome is pretty good

it is kind of minimalistic
but thta's what's so awesome about it.

[lovejyk]

I don't mind testing out browsers and such. However, I've been using Firefox for years and I doubt I would permanelty switch to Chrome. I had the beta for Chrome and used it for a couple of days and decided to go back to my Firefox.

But I love Google's Gmail

[Ruiz]

I've been a hardcore IE user for 7+ years. Browsers like FireFox never impressed me, not one bit.

I installed Chrome and switched it to my default browser within the first five minutes of using it. What does that tell you? O.o

Crash and burn? hah.

[vc1188]

I used Chrome for a few days, and while many aspects are awesome, it's not enough for me to switch from Firefox

[colloquy]

If it was available on Mac, I would probably use it - I use it on my Windows via VMware Fusion, and its very fast... which is all I need.

[hyuni]

wah? i love chrome im using it now, but i hate the scrolling and how flash doesnt work on chrome

[nanshi]

Not a fan of Chrome. I've been a loyal user of Opera for 2+ years now (and Firefox before that). The thing is, there really isn't anything innovative about browsers any more. Well, none I can think of. When Opera came out with tabs (apparently, they were the first), it was this huge thing and Firefox jumped on the wagon, and even though IE tried to hold out, they realized the demand and then eventually added it in too.

Now, Opera's come out with their "Speed Dial" feature which is one of my favorite features of the new Opera and Chrome has something extremely similar as well (except Chrome uses dynamic webpaages based on browsing history and Opera's are stable and you just click-and-drag). The only innovative thing about Chrome is their Sandbox feature which I really really like (youtube always makes forums load slow. hate it). But the fact that you can't get Flash on it baffles me (I'm sure support will be up for it very soon though). Plus, on an old computer like mine, Chrome still eats up too many resources (just like the CPU hog of Google Desktop).

For Chrome to compete, they're genuinely going to have to come up with something that no other browser has. They've come close, but not something innovative enough to make people switch, I don't think. On the Google name alone, I don't think they're going to take off so well. Not with IE, Firefox, and Opera (not to mention tons of other smaller browsers out there like Maxthon and Avant) already running so far ahead of the pack.

[★ rain-a-sky ★]

Chrome kept on crashing on me so I use firefox now.