[Tuffcore]

So they say, technically anyways, the recession is over but how many of us can actually feel it? I haven't seen work pick up in my field and in the States, unemployment rate is still on the rise. Those who survived are getting cut hours and cut pay. Half the money in Obama's stimulus package is used with marginal effects. Credit is still tight. A lot of friends and family are still sitting at home jobless.

That said,
- Global stock markets appear stable again.
- Canadian real estate activity is back to pre-recession levels.
- Australia raises its interest rates.

So, is the recession over where you are? Have you been positively impacted? Or, is the worse to come yet?

[Pogichinoy]

According to the 'experts', the recession never hit us here. But who is to know what really will happen? We may still have the ripple effect and Australia will get officially hit by the global recession several months down the track.

Even though our interest rates have risen, 0.25%, it is only because the RBA thinks the worst is over, they will easily reduce it as fast as they did before when there are signs of a big rise in umeployment or when spending decreases.

[aznkc]

people are still scared to spend thats why the economy still looks like its in recession..gota get the money flowing again

[ferricadeline]

gota get the money flowing again

I agree. While I pay minimal attention to the media, if the recession has indeed ended I say give us at least six months before expecting any show of improvement. It takes time for economical factors to accumulate into anything outstanding. And considering the size of our country (both geographically and population-wise), an appearance of the turnaround will be slow-coming.

[ra123]

I think what Australia may only be doing is putting on a temporary "brake" to its damage assessment. There may be a slow signs of growth in the country at the cost of dodging a recession bullet.

Australia may been able to dodge the affect of a "technical" recession with its surge in exports and its billion dollar stimulus but the long term trend for its GDP is only going up 2% which means jobs will still be lost. With china being its biggest trader, Australia (incredibly dependent on investors) still needs monetary and fiscal support and the likelihood of prospective buyers supporting them. Also Australia soaks up on one resource sector (such as mining) which deprives room for expansion of other fields. Shortages in resource sectors may ultimately mean a higher rise in inflation later on in the years (scaring investors away which is a big no no)

[nightz]

It's not over. They're only saying its over so they can get people to open their wallets again.

[Gofishus]

Well it's over whenever we see the GDP have positive growth again, technically which is this quarter probably. As for the Canadian real estate market...umm it never went down? My parents just bought a 1+1 condo for 370k? If anything, that's more expensive then pre-recession.

[terrorist]

there is a second mortgage shock coming.
subprimes issue is somewhat over.

Read about optionarms they are luring customers with teaser rates right now.
those rates are going to default. when it defaults.. everyone is going to be in foreclosure again.

in the next 5 years. not sure when.. it's going to get even worse.

My prediction is that it's going to get really bad over the years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM

and remember the U.S dollar is not backed up by gold

[Tuffcore]

According to the 'experts', the recession never hit us here. But who is to know what really will happen? We may still have the ripple effect and Australia will get officially hit by the global recession several months down the track.

I think what Australia may only be doing is putting on a temporary "brake" to its damage assessment. There may be a slow signs of growth in the country at the cost of dodging a recession bullet.

Is it because you guys in Australia aren't as closely tied to the Americans as other parts of the world?

Shortages in resource sectors may ultimately mean a higher rise in inflation later on in the years (scaring investors away which is a big no no)

Wouldn't shortages in resource increase the demand for them, ultimately increasing mining value and attracting investors?

people are still scared to spend thats why the economy still looks like its in recession..gota get the money flowing again

I agree. While I pay minimal attention to the media, if the recession has indeed ended I say give us at least six months before expecting any show of improvement. It takes time for economical factors to accumulate into anything outstanding. And considering the size of our country (both geographically and population-wise), an appearance of the turnaround will be slow-coming.

It's not over. They're only saying its over so they can get people to open their wallets again.

I tend to agree. The government (in the States) has pumped stimulus money into the economy, created a false recovery, and then encouraged its population to spend on these manufactured pretenses. Unfortunately, it's working. People are once again spending more than they make while most job cuts are on the horizon.

Very dangerous.

Well it's over whenever we see the GDP have positive growth again, technically which is this quarter probably. As for the Canadian real estate market...umm it never went down? My parents just bought a 1+1 condo for 370k? If anything, that's more expensive then pre-recession.

It did go down for awhile, at least activity did. The prices may have remained somewhat stagnant but activity is back to normal (somewhat normal).

there is a second mortgage shock coming.
subprimes issue is somewhat over.

Read about optionarms they are luring customers with teaser rates right now.
those rates are going to default. when it defaults.. everyone is going to be in foreclosure again.

in the next 5 years. not sure when.. it's going to get even worse.

My prediction is that it's going to get really bad over the years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM

and remember the U.S dollar is not backed up by gold

I hear about this "second mortgage shock" too and i hear about it happening as soon as January 2010.

1. People are still losing their jobs.
2. Gold is at record highs which shows the lack of confidence in the American dollar and the economy in general.
3. Baby boomers retiring and being extremely sensitive to drops in the stock market.
4. Presidential cycle (usually the second year is a down year).
5. Rising US deficits.
6. Possible war with Iran.

Lots of triggers for another crash.

[Pogichinoy]

Is it because you guys in Australia aren't as closely tied to the Americans as other parts of the world?

Give Australia some credit , its because our banks were a bit more careful than the rest of the world with their investments, the fact that Australians are stubborn and kept spending after the GFC was announced, along with the various stimulus packages that were introduced by the govt.

[Searesrayne]

Hell no, it's getting worse where I'm at (cali) both my parents checks were bounced(is that the word?) two time in a row, and they're nurses D=. My mom works in wealthy large private nursing home.... >_> .

The house prices are going down and more and more ppl are moving out of foreclosed homes. and there's at least a foreclosed home on every street.

Lots of things are going up, and job hours are going down, and most of the money is going towards the house already. I would spend some money if I had some, but all the money I get goes for school books and that's only the beginning of semester.
My aunt that lives in Tennessee isn't really being affected (I think, or its the fact that she's a doctor...)
~~~~~~
Family that's lives in the Philippines dont' have much of a problem, they went on a bunch of vacation trips _X'*jealous*

[alasam]

I don't think the stock market is the best indicator of the global economy right now. The fact of the matter is between government stimulus packages that have created somewhat artificial bubbles of recovery and the fact that a lot of the market shifts are speculation based as opposed to premised on investments in long term stable and fiscally viable companies, I think we still have a ways to go when you examine the other indicators (ie: unemployment, decreased spending, etc.) before we can say the recession is over for the average individual.

I also think here in America there will be another round of foreclosures in the not too distant future. The fact of the matter is quite a few people are approaching the end of their unemployment benefits and unless congress extends the time allotted, you will see a barage of people now completely depeleted of any consistant monetary inflow. Frankly, even if Congress extends the benefits for the proposed 13 weeks, I don't know that it's enough time for the majority of Americans broaching the end of their benefits to find employment again.

[Tuffcore]

Give Australia some credit , its because our banks were a bit more careful than the rest of the world with their investments, the fact that Australians are stubborn and kept spending after the GFC was announced, along with the various stimulus packages that were introduced by the govt.

Here in Canada, we played it safe too but we're too tied to the Americans. Something like 60% of our exports go to the USA. So, despite playing it safe, we're still screwed because the Americans are losing purchasing power. A falling American dollar also means the Americans can find better deals South of the border since they lose so much on the exchange rate. They're buying less from us and we don't have enough markets in China and the rest of the world to keep our economy afloat.

The Australians are smart to have a more diversified portfolio.

Hell no, it's getting worse where I'm at (cali) both my parents checks were bounced(is that the word?) two time in a row, and they're nurses D=. My mom works in wealthy large private nursing home.... >_> .

The house prices are going down and more and more ppl are moving out of foreclosed homes. and there's at least a foreclosed home on every street.

Lots of things are going up, and job hours are going down, and most of the money is going towards the house already. I would spend some money if I had some, but all the money I get goes for school books and that's only the beginning of semester.
My aunt that lives in Tennessee isn't really being affected (I think, or its the fact that she's a doctor...)
~~~~~~
Family that's lives in the Philippines dont' have much of a problem, they went on a bunch of vacation trips _X'*jealous*

There's a lot of people jobless here too. Mostly, people selling high end homes for cheap and then moving into even cheaper low end homes.

I don't think the stock market is the best indicator of the global economy right now. The fact of the matter is between government stimulus packages that have created somewhat artificial bubbles of recovery and the fact that a lot of the market shifts are speculation based as opposed to premised on investments in long term stable and fiscally viable companies, I think we still have a ways to go when you examine the other indicators (ie: unemployment, decreased spending, etc.) before we can say the recession is over for the average individual.

I also think here in America there will be another round of foreclosures in the not too distant future. The fact of the matter is quite a few people are approaching the end of their unemployment benefits and unless congress extends the time allotted, you will see a barage of people now completely depeleted of any consistant monetary inflow. Frankly, even if Congress extends the benefits for the proposed 13 weeks, I don't know that it's enough time for the majority of Americans broaching the end of their benefits to find employment again.

Thanks for the reply. That's very interesting about the second round of foreclosures. Do you see it hitting America rapidly or will we see it unfold slowly?

I also completely agree about the false recovery and i'm investing in the markets very cautiously. I also think the markets are pumped up "artificially" because government stimulus money is mostly what's pampering the bottom line of quarterly reports. Companies are looking fantastic again but that has yet to translate into job creation and economic stability. The stimulus money can't flow into the markets forever and i think the street knows this too. I mean, what's going to happen after the stimulus money is all gone? It's anyone's guess.

Do you think we should watch out for any catalyst that would trigger another collapse in the markets?

[HERMIT]

I'll tell you one thing, I think the recession of the US economy will end way before the recession of my hairline.

[l3lo]

lets just put it this way...its not as bad as it was months ago

[damyoungji]

The recession may be "over", but the after-effects will take quite awhile to heal.